The bigger picture.
Behind the price.
Growth, inflation, monetary policy and liquidity: the economic context surrounding price developments.
Where is the economy heading?
Activity, employment and price data provide evidence of changes in economic momentum.
Explore ↗POLICY & LIQUIDITYWhat is changing in financial conditions?
Interest rates, central-bank decisions and funding conditions shape the financial environment.
Explore ↗CROSS-MARKET CONTEXTAre other markets confirming the view?
Yields, the dollar and credit conditions offer context for developments across asset classes.
Explore ↗Growth, jobs and inflation.
Economic activity, labour conditions and inflation need to be read together. A single surprise may leave the broader trend intact; the sequence of observations and subsequent revisions matter.
Output, business surveys, industrial production and spending: is momentum improving or fading?
Payrolls, unemployment and wage growth: is labour demand holding up, and are the measures telling a consistent story?
Consumer prices and underlying measures: which components are driving the change, and is the pressure broad or concentrated?
Policy, liquidity and the cost of capital.
Central-bank decisions, changing guidance and market expectations each contribute to the policy outlook. Bond yields, balance-sheet developments and funding conditions complete the picture.
Liquidity measures differ by series, currency, frequency and transmission channel. Those definitions need to be explicit before drawing conclusions from a change in an aggregate.
Read across markets.
Government bonds, the dollar, credit and commodities provide cross-market comparisons. Agreement and divergence both deserve examination in the context of the instrument under review.
Cross-market relationships can change. They provide context, while the pivot-point roadmap defines the relevant chart levels and scenario conditions.
Keep the release in context.
The period measured can be different from the day the figure is published. Both belong in the analysis.
Check revisions and distinguish adjusted, annualised and year-over-year measures.
A strong number can still disappoint expectations. Where a comparison with consensus is used, it needs a named, dated source.
Assess the price response at relevant pivot zones before revising the roadmap.